headless horsefacts
@horsefacts.eth
The main thing I've learned from prediction markets (lifetime P&L roughly one used Mazda Miata, so don't take me too seriously) is that "buy an outcome based on available information and wait for it to happen" is pretty much always a bad trade. "Buy what is mispriced today" is much better. (not prediction advice)
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headless horsefacts
@horsefacts.eth
They are often mispriced, in particular by: Cults of personality "Buy Yes" bias Longshot bias Structural limits and liquidity Herding and mood affiliation That doesn't mean they're wrong, it means you can make money making them right.
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m00npapiš©q/dau
@m00npapi.eth
I donāt use the platform but do their products have a premium or decay? ^^ ignoring this, I agree even if Kammy doesnāt win u can problably make something going from 37->45% and selling it?
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Ayush Garg
@axg
i second you on that
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Tayyab - d/acc
@tayyab
Yes, I think this is the case. Regardless of who wins the election I think it would be wrong to declare PMs as a holy grail or just another speculation tool. We donāt really discover its value until we get iterated games (how right is this vs a poll over 100 simulations).
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Samuel
@samuellhuber.eth
/microsub tip: 66 $DEGEN note: we are sending tips to all Nominees today due to recent issues with official allowance data. we will return to our normal 3-day rotation tomorrow.
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