politics

Early voting totals, polls and markets seem to indicate either GOP landslide—or an Election Day collapse (because so many voted early, some GOP voters stay home because of perceived lead, strong turn out from Dems, indpts and dual hate break for Harris).

Kalshi at $100M in volume negating “Americans can’t bet” argument. Robinhood launching trading will also add liquidity. Maybe some big trader will take EV+ Kamala 3x bet in size over the weekend.

The main thing I've learned from prediction markets (lifetime P&L roughly one used Mazda Miata, so don't take me too seriously) is that "buy an outcome based on available information and wait for it to happen" is pretty much always a bad trade. "Buy what is mispriced today" is much better. (not prediction advice)

I'm eth newbie..just learning
(working on @farcaster)

terminally.online

They are often mispriced, in particular by:
Cults of personality
"Buy Yes" bias
Longshot bias
Structural limits and liquidity
Herding and mood affiliation

That doesn't mean they're wrong, it means you can make money making them right.

Yes, there are many ways. An easy one is to buy contracts across multiple platforms. Since probabilities sum to 1 you can lock in a payout. For example, buy YES Harris for 35 cents on Polymarket and YES Trump at 55 cents on Kalshi. Congrats, you bought dollars for $0.90.

Is there a way to arbitrage between various prediction markets markets?

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B.S in Chemical Engineering

BUIDLGUIDL 🛡️⚔️🛠️ 

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https://youtube.com/@Ongaloid?si=w25tJeY-XgXt0i

would not be surprised to see it flip multiple times

I don’t use the platform but do their products have a premium or decay?

^^ ignoring this, I agree even if Kammy doesn’t win u can problably make something going from 37->45% and selling it?

imean, isn't that's exactly how markets work
but the thing that is undervalued

Yes, I think this is the case. Regardless of who wins the election I think it would be wrong to declare PMs as a holy grail or just another speculation tool. 

We don’t really discover its value until we get iterated games (how right is this vs a poll over 100 simulations).

I see you’re a man of culture 
Mazda wink ;)

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