horsefacts
@horsefacts.eth
The main thing I've learned from prediction markets (lifetime P&L roughly one used Mazda Miata, so don't take me too seriously) is that "buy an outcome based on available information and wait for it to happen" is pretty much always a bad trade. "Buy what is mispriced today" is much better. (not prediction advice)
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Tayyab - d/acc
@tayyab
Yes, I think this is the case. Regardless of who wins the election I think it would be wrong to declare PMs as a holy grail or just another speculation tool. We don’t really discover its value until we get iterated games (how right is this vs a poll over 100 simulations).
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