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Brent Fitzgerald
@bf
I wonder how many women use polymarket
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shazow
@shazow.eth
I'm not sure if it matters, if people are trying to make money rather than express personal opinions. Could be as likely that men are overcompensating for what they think women's vote would be because they fear women are underrepresented in polymarket?
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Brent Fitzgerald
@bf
Oh the epistemological layers! It’s too early in the week for this! I think it may matter if people (mostly men) are betting based on the information they have available, which is the media they consume (more likely conservative) and the people they listen/talk to (mostly men/conservative). But wow, wild thought that men might be actually thinking about lack of representation of women.
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Brent Fitzgerald
@bf
Barely related, I wonder if there’s a typical number of layers of second-level knowledge that a person can reasonably account for. Layer 1 is knowing or believing something directly. Layer 2 is knowing or believing someone knows or believes something. Etc. Like maybe the mean is 1.7 except among moral philosophers and chess players where it’s 3.6.
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shazow
@shazow.eth
On the one hand, I want to push back because it's not a "1 vote per person" situation. It can take take only one person to strongly disagree and have the finances to move the needle. On the other hand, I suppose it's also possible that the "Sentiment" the market is predicting is implicitly a weird sub-niche, like "Men's sentiment on the election" and we don't realize that we're in that trap until we get sufficiently close to the resolving phase.
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