skininthegame

this should be an important polymarket event

One observation about Polymarket is that most of the things you can bet on are relatively short-term. The longest term bets I've seen are things like "Will _____ happen in 2025?" It would be interesting to see some longer term bets like 3-5 year or even decade away predictions. "Will _____ happen by 2030?"

I think I've seen bets for things happening by 2030

The issue with those is liquidity, to win the bet you need to wait 5 years lol, not a good investment

Since the moment you buy you can't sell unless in a loss or wait for the market to push the buy order book up significantly