Network States

Internet 📈
Indians 📈
China 📈
DC 📉

Those are the four forces on the world as I see them. The Internet, Indians, and China are rising. DC is falling. And America is split between the American Network (rising with the Internet) and the American State (falling with DC).

What factors make you believe the american state is falling?

It’s bankrupt.

The state is making $2-4T a year with $175T in debt. So it’s not actually a rich country. It’s like a guy playing fake rich by maxing out his credit cards.

Default is coming.

BDFL of Quilibrium, Eng @ Farcaster, ex-Coinbase, always opinionated, never hydrated

/quilibrium

It’s bankrupt.

The state is making $2-4T a year with $175T in debt. So it’s not actually a rich country. It’s like a guy playing fake rich by maxing out his credit cards.

Default is coming.
https://open.substack.com/pub/balajis/p/americas-175-trillion-problem?r=2974h&utm_medium=ios

What would you consider the solution to pivot out of this? Assuming it is inevitable that america enters a default crisis, if you had control of the levers of action, what would be the next move?

The greatest strength comes from knowing your own weakness.

My overarching thesis is that history is running in reverse. So the countries that had a great 20th century are on track for a tough 21st, and vice versa.

For example: China, Russia, India, Eastern Europe were crushed by socialism. Now they are capitalist and unified to varying degrees. So their overall trajectory is up.

Meanwhile, Woke America and Western Europe were once capitalist and unified. But now they’re woke with broken borders and bankrupt states. So their overall trajectory is down.

Like Dalio and Elon, I believe the coming sovereign debt crisis will end 500 years of Western dominance (and also take down Japan). Failing states will get extremely nasty.

I think China rises. I think the Internet succeeds the West, and opposes China. I also think Bitcoin Republicans can maybe turn Florida into a Taiwan equivalent, where capitalists take refuge.

But most aren’t ready to hear this. They still think the postwar order will last.

Wrote an answer below.

The problem is most Westerners don’t viscerally understand how tragic the fate of the East was in the last century.

The bad guys did win, for generations. Communism crushed billions of lives. There were mass wealth seizures and mass murders. And of course communism posed as good, as being for the workers and peasants. But it was really just for the Communist Party.

Right now in the West we have a woke ideology that poses as good. As being for women and minorities. But it’s really just for the Democrat Party. And the violence or BLM, antifa, Hamas is just a preview of what is to come.

Drug addicts will squat in your house. Assets will be seized. Homes burned. Roads blocked. Propaganda will blot out the skies. Already happening, but it’ll escalate.

Blue states in particular are bankrupt. Red states may survive if they break away in time. This is just like what the East suffered last century.

cc @les @shoni.eth @brixbounty

/grey - terminally ochain dad & spouse, building products on frontier solutions w frontier people.

Growing veggies for the fine folks of Southeastern Massachusetts, w/ a focus on nutrient quality. Always interested in the evolution of digital payments.  🎩 

Wrote an answer below.

The problem is most Westerners don’t viscerally understand how tragic the fate of the East was in the last century.

The bad guys did win, for generations. Communism crushed billions of lives. There were mass wealth seizures and mass murders. And of course communism posed as good, as being for the workers and peasants. But it was really just for the Communist Party.

Right now in the West we have a woke ideology that poses as good. As being for women and minorities. But it’s really just for the Democrat Party. And the violence or BLM, antifa, Hamas is just a preview of what is to come.

Drug addicts will squat in your house. Assets will be seized. Homes burned. Roads blocked. Propaganda will blot out the skies. Already happening, but it’ll escalate.

Blue states in particular are bankrupt. Red states may survive if they break away in time. This is just like what the East suffered last century.

cc @les @alexpaden @brixbounty 
https://warpcast.com/balajis.eth/0x9b0d0c07

I see a prediction of outcome, but I'm asking if you were in the position to make the changes you feel are needed to pivot out of the situation, what would you do? Or do you simply believe there is no solution at all, it will simply happen with no possible intervention due to momentum?

I think the positive-sum answer is to start new communities and eventually new countries. This is a long rebuild. Decades to generations. But it should start now while times are still relatively good.

If interested, you should come to the upcoming conference at thenetworkstate.com/conference.

To your other question @cassie, yes I do think the current trajectory of Western debt is bad enough that it can’t be fixed without some kind of catastrophe.

However, the specifics of who is in power may determine exactly how that catastrophe is dealt with.

The big problem is neither Democrats nor Republicans really acknowledge the level of decline.

The postwar order is like Biden himself — denying while declining. Angry, obsolete, yet hanging on to the very last minute before he’s forced out in the messiest way possible.