brypto

Geopolitics

Writer, podcaster, and commentator on foreign affairs and politics. Loves history, languages, technology, and philosophy. I’m also on X at Mazmhussain.twitter

Our beloved betting markets did not do great on this one either:

I forget who casted it, but someone here made the great point that political markets don’t actually “predict” outcomes very well

They mostly just track other people’s sentiment until the end and then whiplash to converge with the outcome (mostly just arbitrage at that point)

That’s probably why liquidity is so poor

I'd be very curious to see how different these markets looked like if they were as easy to participate in as buying a stock on Robinhood. The 'sentiment' of people savvy enough to bet on Polymarket is probably also having it's own impact.