A surprisingly non-emotional, non-partisan economic take on tariffs. No actual conclusion / prediction beyond what happens to currencies and rates.

(And I'm not a big Dalio fan.)

Ray Dalio

A surprisingly non-emotional, non-partisan economic take on tariffs. No actual conclusion / prediction beyond what happens to currencies and rates.

(And I'm not a big Dalio fan.)

https://x.com/RayDalio/status/1907489922359132627

Working on Farcaster and Warpcast. Longer thoughts at https://dwr.email

(I have no idea what happens in 6 months with the tariffs.)

Yeah I think the logistics and operations doesn't make sense. My fundamental worry is none of this is even feasible.

Dalio and others claim "tariffs" are necessary citing data from the 50s and 20s like we're the agrarian and industrial economy of the past. Today have a hyper global supply chain now where some components travel between the border *multiple times* as they are manufactured. Then these might be shipped in containers where the container company can mix multiple components from different countries.

I really don't think we have border systems in place to actually account for goods that are packaged and entered into ports, and there is absolutely no way to crack every container and look at every item in the containers and charge each item correctly.

Maybe if you automated and digitized almost every part of this it would work, but then you'll get the longshoreman angry again!