Have a feeling the Twitter migration debacle will end up (at least among tech circles) splintering into tech optimists funneling here, and tech pessimists funneling into Mastodon.

Twitter will boom after this, but only among “normie” users (similar to Instagram or Tumblr)

Designer, among other things. Learning backend dev. @astralwave on the bird app

Maybe, with every social site that starts out free and then grows to an unstable scale, this will always happen. 

Management shakeup is only a catalyst for tensions to boil over.

Twitter already had deep tensions in terms of norms that were irreconcilable.

Those norms can roughly be described as “market” vs “community”. 

Market: sell ideas/things
Community: make friends

When Twitter turns into a “market”, something else needs to become a “community”.

But “community” is contingent on values, hence will always be fragmented.

Everyone will crosspost to Twitter for a while, and use it for marketing / broadcast-type content, but it will become impersonal.

Blogger at ribbonfarm.com, running summerofprotocols.com, host of /gloom ☀️

Hmm, I don’t know, Mastodon seems to be invite-only in practice, as well, since most of the good servers are invite-only. 

I’m still searching for a server myself (begun searching this week)

I just found a server and got on Mastodon. I see what you mean now by unusably complex. 

But it’s hoops that maybe people might not mind jumping through, I think, if politically-motivated

This is no competition for mastodon due to limited beta access and crypto barrier but it could see a big surge of onboarding in 2-3 months as fediverse disillusionment sets in. Mastodon is simply too unusably complex for most people.