I’ll double down on my original prediction: Threads is a dud.

make it more precise and I'll make a market

The only problem is externality pricing.

Building https://negationgame.com

People won’t be talking about it. A matter of taste. :)

This market isn’t going to happen because betting on metrics with a company that has 3B DAU isn’t prudent

What's the resolution of this informal bet? @dwr.eth @nor

https://www.zdnet.com/article/threads-has-more-people-actively-using-it-now-than-during-its-initial-peak-says-meta/

But also it's true that people "aren't talking about it". 

Dan's original prediction was low precarity, therefore low persuasion