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adcv

@adcv

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99 Followers
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adcv
@adcv
a thriving application market on top of the current issuance curve design is a success and proof it sort of works actually rushing into the first of what is guaranteed to be an endless line of One Last Changes trades the dream of automation for forever manual governance to rein in the most successful application?
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@adcv
good grief is he here to see this
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@adcv
from a @steakhousefi talk at blocksplit in 2023 https://drive.google.com/file/d/1vtCSipHvYDZzmQ8H3qAk1W2UupZJguC6/view
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adcv
@adcv
triple entry accounting enjoyers https://x.com/twobitidiot/status/1758133652511179107?s=20
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Marcel
@bluhmus
Here is joint work with @steakhousefi’s @adcv and @sebventures and baloonist on asset-liability management of programmatic stablecoins (light on formulas, sorry @pinged) https://arxiv.org/abs/2401.13399 Feedback, questions and discussion welcome!
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1950-1980 balance sheet expansion correlates quite strongly to inflation, but p breaks down thereafter. Are 1980+ conditions really indicative of successfully anchored expectations? What do they look like 2004-2023 now? 2004 was 20 years ago now, incredible to think about but it’s another universe now.
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@adcv
"The eight central banks in our sample and the euro area central banks experienced a significant increase in their balance sheets after 2007. On average, balance sheets have grown by almost 20 percentage points relative to GDP. The expansion leading up to and during World War II was also around 20 percentage points"
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"Government debt and government-guaranteed assets today again account for as large a share of central bank balance sheet size as they did during World War II."
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@adcv
reviewing Niall Ferguson's 2015 paper on the composition of central bank balance sheets over time: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/110876/1/cesifo_wp5379.pdf some interesting observations:
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@adcv
i followed this one at uni https://www.epflpress.org/product/138/9782889151301/commande-numerique-de-systemes-dynamiques-vol-1 course page lists this EN ref tho i never used it https://www.cds.caltech.edu/~murray/amwiki/Second_Edition.html i was brutally terrible at control theory, shockingly poor grade performance
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@adcv
tax authorities reading this tweet rn
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@adcv
the Taylor rule is a very simple P controller haha i guess just not one that has any actuation
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@adcv
Hey /cryptobanking someone on The Other App is arguing that unissued DAO tokens can be reflected at their market value https://x.com/adcv_/status/1757384395227291969?s=20
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more control theory applications include the Morpho Blue interest rate model which shifts the kinked curve up or down depending on the error between the rate and the target https://docs.morpho.org/concepts/morpho-blue/core-concepts/irm
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it's such an esoteric value proposition, it's difficult to explain to people. I have this idea that RAI would be a better Chairman of the Federal Reserve than the person in charge now, but as a standalone product will struggle to find adoption
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Monteluna
@monteluna
The PID controller designed floatcoins are better than holding flat dollars, since purchasing power is down 20% from 2020. TAI seems to be a spiritual successor to RAI, but I'm not sure if there's any market appetite to use floats considering the people want fixed par to the USD despite inflation.
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@adcv
aldasoro is a prolific banker for international settlementing https://x.com/SteakhouseFi/status/1751984518427205888?s=20
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@adcv
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Opalo concludes: "Clarity from governments would make it easier to develop knowledge and calibrate models. CRAs should improve regional presence and country-specific knowledge, if only to make their models and processes more legible (and therefore influential) among African policymakers and private sector actors"
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The counterpoint from CRAs is that they in fact as biased in favor of positive ratings: "22% of B ratings issued 2010-2023 defaulted within five years. Global long-term avg stand at only 16%. At Moody’s, default ratios look similar at 30% for SSAs and 15% for global average"
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