Might end up being the correct analysis from last night (take or leave his assessment of the live players).

> So with that context, I posit the strategy is entirely: destabilize and ultimately decapitate China.

I’m playing everyone’s favorite party game: guess the Trump administration’s strategy. Like most of you, I have no inside information. But that’s what makes it fun. Here’s my best theory.

Some assumptions first:

1) They’re not crazy. There is a strategy. It doesn’t align with

Matthew Prince 🌥

Might end up being the correct analysis from last night (take or leave his assessment of the live players).

> So with that context, I posit the strategy is entirely: destabilize and ultimately decapitate China.

https://x.com/eastdakota/status/1909822463707652192

Working on Farcaster and Warpcast. Longer thoughts at https://dwr.email

"Crazy" IS the strategy.

If Trump is willing to erase trillions from global markets in the pursuit of a trade environment that's more favorable to the US, confronting such a strategy (instead of negotiating) is a very risky move for China (who is not known for risky moves).

Unlike the previous "tariff war" - which in my view China won by devaluing its currency to offset tariff impacts - this time around China is in a much tougher economic position, while the US is likely to win regardless of China's response.

If China raises tariffs to astronomical levels it would essentially decouple the two economies, which the US benefits from and China doesn't (Chinese manufacturing for the US market will just shift to other countries, and a small part of it will come back to the US).

If they negotiate to lower tariffs, the terms would be more favorable to the US.

This time around the US is a more agile player - only question may be how much market turbulence the public is willing to endure.