JD

@darkstar

63 Following

2118 Followers

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consumer crypto's asymmetric upside is its intersection with another (massive) secular trend. like AI. & like we've seen with finance.

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gn. https://youtu.be/U0nlEcKSjmY?si=hIer_-IKht66OO-3

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apps are taking > 50% of the global blockchain fee pool (SOL + ETH) & we're still debating consumer?

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Just as private data lock in drove web2 product development, perceived liquidity lock in has led to web3 consumer use cases developed to optimize for economic capture over value creation and ephemeral experiences over durability. While network liquidity is essential for transacting, recent infrastructure advancements have made liquidity homogenous, removing its strong hold on applications. Now that data and liquidity are not the moat, applications must be in service of the user, not the chain.

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a code to code media model.

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'24 Sturgill Simpson is like '01 Jack White. "Oh you all forgot about rock and roll? I'll show you fucking rock n roll." Carrying it on his back. https://youtu.be/vexOpL550mA?si=pB_1qyuN-KyTVyr_

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the next media business model is code to code. & crypto is on one side of that equation.

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Skeptics undersize the TAM of Consumer Crypto because they fail to acknowledge the second-order effects of blockchains. 👇 https://x.com/jonmoore202/status/1836893215116443969

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crypto is a universal, global business model. most apps/products today need to target based on Geo-- factors include discretionary income, credit cards, payment support. Display & mobile products have different features & restrictions on their model not crypto. & that's the TAM

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blockchain's big unlock in consumer is providing services to individuals that were previously impossible or prohibitive. the tech NOW makes it available. i think that's why we'll see an explosion of applications integrating & leveraging stablecoins, w/ a focus on global first.

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one of those songs that you gloss over or scroll past & then months down the road, your buddy sends it to you and you're like "this is amazing!". so don't waste time & just press play now. https://open.spotify.com/track/3cY2nHVVX2ZER1ttxGzLav?si=909220592f8a4daf

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the challenge of consumer applications & experiences in crypto can be attributed to who these companies are building for -- mainly developers. & if you build for devs with hopes that they will build for consumer, you still need to understand consumer GTM, product and models.

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most crypto cos should have vastly different metrics that drive their success. each company should define their own lead metrics, and measure against those -- vs. today, measuring against industry-wide KPIs. lag metrics lead to building short term capture, lead metrics drive towards product durability.

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"optimizing for value capture today feels premature." https://hackmd.io/@mikeneuder/ethesis

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think most of the consumer bottleneck in crypto could be attributed to the industry over indexing on bottom of the funnel mechanics. traditionally, markets scale and the biggest businesses are built through capturing the bottom (data, revenue). crypto started there & has maintained 99% of its energy there. when really TAM is about expanding outside of the presumed metrics of "Crypto" by providing valuable technology & experiences to consumers they aren't getting elsewhere. or said differently, the only reason "crypto" remains a separate consumer category is that the development is fostering the existing customers & perceptions of what they want. it's a cycle to spin out of.

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consumer crypto should be gauged less on value captured and more on value created. the former provides short term wins, capturing high velocity moments through behaviors which already exist. the latter creates or expands markets, catalyzing new behaviors which can have significant longer and more durable markets.

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nhl season looms.

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“You can't use twentieth century metrics and concepts to analyze twenty first century demand and perception.” https://lefsetz.com/wordpress/2024/09/05/one-more-oasis/

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to kick off the wave of adoption for the first class of consumer crypto companies, founders will measure their success more like SaaS & Commerce businesses than Social, Media or Gaming businesses. we are still in the phase of defining customers & audience in crypto. we have core users, mercenaries, bots... all of which are still in their value discovery phase. where clicks, users and views worked to show web2 growth, in web3 -- similar to high TVL growth in DeFi -- those metrics are often fragile and misleading. for consumer crypto to shine, it's less focus on output metrics and more focus on its unique consumer behaviors-- this will shepherd foundations where incentives drive new and efficient ways to transfer value. then we're off to the next step.

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think we'll see continued investment towards applications that expand beyond the crypto echo chamber. apps targeting crypto consumers need to be great at capturing revenue velocity. apps targeting those outside will balance web2 familiarity with web3 primitives-- & build a business on durability.

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