Yung Zo
@yungzo
Crypto Targets and Exits This is a placeholder post and a reminder of thoughts I have lingering. One thing I’ve noticed is that psychology of greed is real. It’s easy to see TOP PRICE TARGETS in CT and think “I’ll cash out everything at this target” The problem is, the price target never gets reached and your stuck holding your bag feeling salty and only capitulate when your near or below cost basis.
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Yung Zo
@yungzo
I literally sat down last night working on reasonable alt szn targets based off of @bitsbitsbits thread: https://x.com/bits_bits_bits/status/1860339272617775328?s=46 Let’s say I have 1,000 $WIF. I believe it’s reasonable that it hits $10. 1,000x$10 = $10,000 Then you see CT targets and it gets you thinking greedy. 1,000x$40 = $40,000 1,000x$100 = $100,000 It’s very easy to get lost in this type of napkin map and start planning only for the highest price target that fits your bias.
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Yung Zo
@yungzo
For me here’s where I was able to ground myself and realize some hard facts. Going back to my example. 1,000 WIF x $1.50 = $1,500 Cost Basis I have a higher probability of hitting targets 1 and 2 and selling 25% (250 WIF) of original stack at each target. That return itself is probably 2-4x your original cost basis. We easily get lost in hitting the TOP TARGET with our entire stack. That is not the way. Some people get lucky, but that’s soooooo much risk. You can almost guarantee yourself 2-4x return by just planning these sells.
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Yung Zo
@yungzo
Alas, I’m human and I will continue to analyze my targets because at times I feel there too low and at times I feel there just right. Too many times, too many people, we all round trip and are left salty. I see the big picture. Why be mad that I miss 6 figs of profits, when planning higher probability rewards still get you 2-4x returns which can be high 5 figs. If your moon shots hit then you can easily be 6-10x and low to mid 6 figs. Took me awhile to grasp this, but it makes sense to me. Opportunity cost is just that. It’s opportunity that easily never comes around or is pushed back for higher opportunity. At some point you need to buckle down and pay yourself!!!
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