skininthegame

Prediction markets have resonated with me since I started in crypto 12 yrs ago. It was initially bc I was a degen & wanted quick cash. Now I’m using prediction markets daily not to bet but as an info consumer to better understand the world.

Augur, Veil & others failed. Polymarket now working. How can we accelerate?

Prediction markets that allow people to gain indirect exposure to private companies via publicly verifiable and hard-to-fake metrics. E.g. go long Farcaster by betting on Warpcast DAU growth.

Part of the challenge is that it's probably hard to find people willing and able to take the other side of those sorts of bets. It's like selling an option. The most likely counterparty would be someone who already has that exposure and is willing to sell some upside in return for yield (like selling a covered call)

Yes. Also, indirect exposure to the success of people.

E.g. bet on Vivek twitter follower growth or Luka points per game

These types of markets haven’t really worked yet and most volume has been big events like political races. Not sure exactly why.