The last important pieces of the polling puzzle are in this morning (NYT polls & Muhlenberg in PA), and I'll say that I think Kamala is now somewhere around 55-60% range to be the next President. Given markets put Trump around 55%, I'm betting a lot on Kam at the moment.

If you want to read further, I can explain why. Or you can stop now!

--

Alright, so if you follow this account you know I hardly talk about my bets or what I think despite betting this stuff all day. I am very reticent to give people advice; it's hard enough doing this with my own money let alone thinking about anyone else's money. If people DM me for tips, I usually tell them to make the decision on their own.

I don't think you should put a lot of weight into my numbers, and the reason I am posting I guess is mostly for posterity. An estimate of 55-60% is going to be wrong by at least 40 points in a few days. Feel free to pick what I am saying apart!

I'm getting to 55-60% for Kam by balancing lots of pieces of information that are co…

The last important pieces of the polling puzzle are in this morning (NYT polls &amp; Muhlenberg in PA), and I'll say that I think Kamala is now somewhere around 55-60% range to be the next President. Given markets put Trump around 55%, I'm betting a lot on Kam at the moment.

If you… https://t.co/HzMINRbu3i