skininthegame

I think new predictions markets will increasingly look to leverage more social context to distinguish themselves from the financial/graph UX of first movers.

Predictions are believes and believes are mostly based on social context. The people that understand this will see what comes next.

Dreams come true when you don’t sleep 



Could not agree more. It will seem obvious in hindsight.

I think if it’s part of a brokerage account it will never take off.

If packaged into a more consumer friendly & socially rich format it has a chance to actually hit the mainstream. 

Predictions are all around us we just don’t have a accessible way to put our money where our mouth is (yet)

I’m still on the fence about what will make prediction markets finally take off. For the past 5yrs I haven’t seen the true mainstream driver for it yet. I do think over a decade or more it could become part of your everyday brokerage account but we’re not there yet at all.

I like the idea behind it but there is one inherent problem with social tokens / personal tokens.

Legal issues aside there is an inherent expectation for return coupled with that person now which makes these things incredibly volatile over the short term.

+ without resolution ≠ prediction

I like the simplicity of a plain token representative of a specific prediction that could be a shorter or longer term event. Token can represent the prediction but also the underlying person / thing. 

Ie buy plain token for a new artist and let it ride both for a new album release but their long term success

Thoughts