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Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
1. Value of Google search is in being the default for most people (thus the $20B they pay to Apple) 2. How do ads work? If the AI is giving you the best answer, the ads don't matter. If the AI is giving you an answer influenced by an advertiser, why won't you use a competing service. 3. All that said, existential issue for Google If only in that it forces cannibalization, esp. as multi-step agents get better, e.g. "research flights and hotels in miami for a trip in January"
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vrypan |--o--|
@vrypan.eth
The new, "AI search" does not have to be as profitable as Google. I bet every AI company today would be happy to be 1/10 of Google at some point. I think AI search engines will be more like travel agents, and less than travel ads. A good agent doesn't show you ads, they also sell trust and expertise. And get commission or charge a markup.
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vrypan |--o--|
@vrypan.eth
That said... OpenAI's valuation ($157B) is already 7.8% of Alphabet's valuation ($2T) and I don't think their investors are there for a 20% return. So they have already set the bar high. **IF** we assume that search would be their primary monetization model, this may rule out a number of viable but less profitable business models and could make them vulnerable against other AI companies. BTW, does OpenAI have its own infra? Or are they renting?
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