Vitalik Buterin
@vitalik.eth
https://twitter.com/AndrewYNg/status/1736577228828496179 This is one of those perspectives that feels wise but I quite disagree with. Consider Covid in Jan 2020. At that time, was it right to focus on (i) actual current realized harm, or (ii) hypotheticals based on projecting exponential functions? Clearly (ii).
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Vitalik Buterin
@vitalik.eth
And I do think AI is similar. If we focus on actual harm, then honestly AI has been much less harmful than even I predicted. Like, if you told someone in 2018 about the capabilities of GPT4, SD, etc, I expect they would predict: mass unemployment, mass election interference, mass something involving social biases...
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Vitalik Buterin
@vitalik.eth
And we have seen some degree of bad stuff: deepfakes (both misleading people directly and discrediting real photo/audio evidence indirectly), authoritarian regimes using facial recognition to go after protesters, etc. But it feels on the order of "the kinds of costs that come with any otherwise-mostly-good technology"
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phil
@phil
Does this reality affect your priors around predicting future harm?
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David Furlong
@df
I think this may be an instance of https://fs.blog/gates-law/ GPT-4, without any further improvements would be majorly disruptive, but it’d take a couple of years for the technology to become integrated into businesses to cause these effects
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KIYY
@0xkiygg
🎁 for you on jam.so
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