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b-rad.eth
@b-rad
What if you created longevity futures? Each decade is tradeable, and the data point is average life expectancy as reported by the CDC (seems like the best source, but open to others?) Would be cool to see how long the market *thinks* the average human will live in 2050, 2100 etc...
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Vitalik Buterin
@vitalik.eth
Long term prediction markets are really hard to get right, because if the price is wrong arbitrage strategies take so long to pay off. First step would be to make @polymarket denominated in an interest-bearing asset...
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b-rad.eth
@b-rad
If you were to choose an interest bearing asset today, which one would you choose? Aave/Compound USDC? Something like USTB? Then what's step 2? 😆 Long term prediction markets *seem* like a desirable thing, so interested in how we can make progress on that front.
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