Varun Srinivasan pfp
Varun Srinivasan
@v
The main thing I've learned from prediction markets is that no one understands how probabilities work
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Varun Srinivasan pfp
Varun Srinivasan
@v
The intuitive reasoning that people have is that if p(X) is greater than p(Y) and Y happens, the model is bad. Most people know this isn't right The correct model is that if you're predicting an infrequent event like the election there is no deterministic way to figure out if the model is good or bad by looking at that prediction. You need to observe the model operating over a bunch of events to get any good understanding of it.
4 replies
0 recast
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Breck Yunits pfp
Breck Yunits
@breck
The problem with prediction markets is that they can be gamed as a cheap advertisement by someone who has a far bigger stake in the outcome of the bet.
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dawufi pfp
dawufi
@dawufi
this is probably right
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比特先知 pfp
比特先知
@jsjnsnn
这些是你在干嘛我都不想活了过来……不能
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Chris Carlson pfp
Chris Carlson
@chrislarsc.eth
You needed prediction markets to teach you that? 😏
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Ri🎩🧿🔄 pfp
Ri🎩🧿🔄
@gravitron
100 $ Degen
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johann pfp
johann
@johann
was thinking this too
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joshisdead.eth pfp
joshisdead.eth
@joshisdead.eth
Or how manipulation works too 😆
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Majid pfp
Majid
@0xmajidx0
And it always proves this in a different way!
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cashlessman 🎩 pfp
cashlessman 🎩
@cashlessman.eth
when smooth video player in Android v? the app stucks after playing a video
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