I see people point to the Moxie chart as a reason for it being a failure or something, IMO this does not make sense.

The median Moxie participant is a Farcaster user who never touched the protocol and just sells their airdrops and rewards. This median participant has exclusively made money and overall has had a good experience with Moxie. 

In this way, Moxie is a wealth transfer from Airstack VCs to Farcaster. Great for the ecosystem

Agree with this but the one burning question I keep asking myself on this is: why would number go up?

father, husband, css golfer, ux engineer, silently defining variables as /sdv sdv.wtf

+1 on this, not against their model, but high % of participants just sell, similar to what was happening with play to earn