skininthegame

What are some ways to avoid manipulation in prediction markets especially if there is a lot of money on the line?

Cofounder of Everyrealm  |  Fmr. Republic Crypto

https://paragraph.xyz/@onchain-living-tjkawamura

Could you pose an idea what is to be manipulated? People betting on the US election, how do you mess with that?

The more important question to ask for me is how we frame and state the rules of a market that is to be bet on. It is super critical that everyone understands what they are betting on and what the rules are.

This is the alt account of Sister Hazel. Writings at https://powerlaw.systems. Building https://testnet.uvio.network. 

When money's in the mix, those involved in the outcome are more influenced to tilt the outcome one way or another. I believe we need rules to ensure that those involved in determining the outcome can't bet on it, just like in professional sports.

Agreed. There is a bit of a chicken in the egg issue where the markets need to be big enough to become decentralized and before they do outcomes may be manipulated in the short term. Once the markets become big enough and can decentralize, they will become difficult to manipulate.

Rules are only as good as you can enforce them. I think what we need are free markets and clear conditions that resolve those markets. There might be a powerlaw dynamic where only markets become popular and big enough that are so decentralized that you cannot easily game them. Like elections and war in middle east.