On the market

1. This is targeted for people building. I'm not a trader and have no point of view on prices beyond crypto has yet to be uncorrelated with risk assets. Bitcoin may showing some signs but unclear.

2. The fundamental building blocks continue to improve. 7702 is shipping soon and will unlock a bunch of wallet innovation, e.g. subsidized gas fees. There are also several new EVM chains like MegaETH and Monad that will be coming to market. Block space will continue to get cheaper. Analogy here is excess broadband build out post dot-com bubble leading to YouTube, web2, etc.

3. Regulatory progress is happening. Last week the SEC publicly said stablecoins are not securities, the STABLE Act is working its way through Congress. After that gets passed, market structure (the more important bill imo) is next. If both bills are passed by the end of the year, this will inevitably lead to more high-quality teams building new products / protocols that are able to use a token to bootstrap.

Working on Farcaster and Warpcast. Longer thoughts at https://dwr.email

the only way launching a token works is if you sell at peak; you’re going to see a 90% drawdown on launch day (because nobody else cares that it’s your startup’s survival money)