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Ferran 🐒
@ferran
1/2 My forecast for 2025 is that the integration of Farcaster’s social layer in Coinbase Wallet will be a spectacular failure. We'll probably see a spike when it comes out of beta (after all, there’s a segment of Coinbase Wallet users who enjoy trying out new things and if they do it well people will try it out) but I predict that by the end of summer, no more than 5% of messages will come from there, and DAUs via Coinbase will be negligible. The reasons? Current Farcaster status quo simply isn’t appealing outside an extremely narrow niche. People don’t want a social layer tied to their wallets. And 99% of people don't give a fuck about financial incentives (basing a significant part of your growth strategy on that is shooting yourself in the foot. It’s a massive trap that could be very difficult to escape from). Continue...
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Ferran 🐒
@ferran
2/2 By the end of the year, this will likely force a major pivot in Farcaster go-to-market strategy toward something far more sexy than what’s been shown so far (which, tbh, has been one of the least exciting GtMs I’ve seen in a long time for a project with this much potential). Hopefully, that pivot will finally position it as a protocol that feels useful to a broader audience, and we’ll start to see more mainstream growth and regular developers and communities will find utility in Farcaster. This is just a positive criticism, I want FC success, and I'm looking forward to proving myself wrong!
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ted (not lasso)
@ted
interesting, thanks for sharing. you should turn this into a bet or a prediction market :) what would you have the value proposition be if you were in charge? fwiw i think chris dixon's read, write, own framing of protocols is one of the most inspiring, and something that resonates with mainstream users
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James McComish
@jamco.eth
@ferran you can make this a prediction market with @onit ! you can ask percentage questions, so 'what percentage of farcaster messages will come from coinbase wallet?' would work
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Ferran 🐒
@ferran
thx for welcoming the message well @ted, even if it might be a bit bitter. I'll try to put together some thoughts. First, I want to make clear that I truly believe Farcaster has the best foundations of a social layer (that's why I'm here, and I built on it). And just the fact that you put together such a big network of nerds and mavericks and gave them a sandbox for experimentation is already an incredible gift But I also think that the current trajectory is heavily biased towards a US-centric worldview. And imo, that has some positive things but also some strategic limitations For example, the fact that your instinct was to suggest me to make a bet on a prediction market (which I, personally, love ngl ahaha) already shows the lens through which many of us approach things. And that lens excludes the 99% majority of people who don't give a fuck about financial bets or putting money in the middle of every aspect of our lives And that moves FC towards a tiny market, not appealing to many people Continues...
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