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Syed Shah🏴☠️🌊
@syed
I think I figured out the VIX spike to 65. WARNING: Please put your tin foil hats on firmly, as you are now entering conspiracy theory territory. Thank you, enjoy your stay. So good ole Larry wants SEC to investigate the spike as a head fake. Alluding to potential fraud. Aka everything is fine. Buffet is hoarding cash for no reason. That slut wants exit liquidity so please keep DCA. What I think the 65 spike was everyone positioning for the carry trade unwind. Probably with bullet swaps and other instruments that have opaque reporting. But the moves somehow triggered VIX due to the size of the moves. Some people are safe some aren't. We'll see when the bodies start floating to the surface. The unwind starts when the rate cuts are announced. As the dollar will depreciate and unless the Yen similarly depreciates, people will get merked. Mind you the BOJ could devalue the Yen but everyday people are suffering enough as is but who cares about their suffering when it comes to markets. Otherwise rate cuts = gg
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Jason
@jachian
Tbh I’ve been saying that there are good signs in the market. It’s kind of helped that tech layoffs were staggered from the hit to SMB woes Barring bank collapses from commercial lending, it’s looking to be a mild recession likely in 2025
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Syed Shah🏴☠️🌊
@syed
I hope so
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Jason
@jachian
Not saying black swans can’t happen Not saying the Japanese yen trade doesn’t continue to unwind Consumer spending and govt spending continue to prop up the economy People cutting their spending on cars, airfare, and furniture don’t single-handedly send the economy in a death spiral
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