SydneyJason on Warpcast

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Thoughts on the current cycle*, a 🧵: 1/5 It's speeding up Attention/liquidity/rotation is moving way faster than previous cycles. It's because we ("smart retail" + funds + tradfi shops) are spread out more. This is a function of: -Communications dispersion: Farcaster, CT, Discord/Telegram, Tiktok, Youtube, podcasts, etc -Chain dispersion: ETH/EVM orbit (including L2s), Solana, Bitcoin L2s, and apparently other places like XRP/Cardano (?!) The meta shifts quickly, and the ball of hot money is moving fast. It's like a Tasmanian Devil spinning around from one city to another, very quickly. *starting with BTC exchange arbitrage in 2013, this is my fourth cycle. I've spent a lot of time thinking about previous mistakes, and I've made a lot of them.

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2/5 A Plan > FOMO While I don't think we're near the supercycle top, in our FC echo chamber we're oscillating between thrill and euphoria lately. This is driven by bull emotions --> watch your FOMO. I fucked this up in previous cycles by selling BTC to lock in a gain, then buying again when the price doubled, then missing the top (I hodled, but was underwater for 4 years) The antidote to FOMO emotions: *Come up with a plan* What bags have you packed in the last few years? Do you have a target price when you start selling? In tradfi we talk a lot about Dollar Cost Averaging: it's probably MORE important with how you harvest your bags in a blow-off top than how you build your bags in the depths of the bear.

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2A For me: a) set price targets about when to harvest b) play with a *small* amount of "test capital" to try out the new metas. There is still plenty of money to be made now, but invest in new ideas sparingly. I've beat Vegas in blackjack over the years. The key was to have a system and "play with the houses' money". So be careful how much new capital you deploy right now.

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3/5 Believe in something Take winnings to stack your "base currency". Many casts about "believe in something" on the timeline. But what does that mean? -what are your "core" assets? In other words, if the market crashes another 90%, what do you want more of that you can hodl for another 5+ years? For me, that's some combination of fiat, ETH, BTC, and SOL (in that order). Yes I like the idealistic part of self-custody and fiat inflation hedges, but I also want to convert crypto gains into Tradfi real world assets (it can be as simple as jamming gains into a stock index fund)

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4/5 Netflix and chill Relax, we'll have pullbacks and restarts. If you rationally create and stick to a plan, you'll leave this supercycle with more than you started with. -There will be flashes in the pan. So stick to your budget for testing out the new metas. Otherwise you're giving into FOMO and can lose real money. -There will also be rebounds: FWIW, I think the $DEGEN, $LUM, $CLANKER, $ANON, $HIGHER and other "Farcaster incubated" bags still have a lot of room to run. But they don't go straight up. Remember, there's a ton of dispersion (chains & information sources). And the big ball of hot money will eventually revalue our niche. For fucks' sake, if XRP is getting such a bid, FC incubated, bleeding edge stuff is bound to pop...

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5/5 Touch grass Seriously! Note to self: stop checking prices 49 times a day. Focus on the plan. Focus on exercise & eating well. Focus on relationships. Get enough sleep. Meditate. Don't spend more than you can afford. Focus on building something. That said, it's the thrill and euphoria that also makes the cycles fun. But better to remove as much emotion as possible with your plan. And focus on healthy things. Your future self will appreciate it more in the next bear.

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