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SydneyJason
@sydneyjason
Thoughts on the current cycle*, a 🧵: 1/5 It's speeding up Attention/liquidity/rotation is moving way faster than previous cycles. It's because we ("smart retail" + funds + tradfi shops) are spread out more. This is a function of: -Communications dispersion: Farcaster, CT, Discord/Telegram, Tiktok, Youtube, podcasts, etc -Chain dispersion: ETH/EVM orbit (including L2s), Solana, Bitcoin L2s, and apparently other places like XRP/Cardano (?!) The meta shifts quickly, and the ball of hot money is moving fast. It's like a Tasmanian Devil spinning around from one city to another, very quickly. *starting with BTC exchange arbitrage in 2013, this is my fourth cycle. I've spent a lot of time thinking about previous mistakes, and I've made a lot of them.
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SydneyJason
@sydneyjason
2/5 A Plan > FOMO While I don't think we're near the supercycle top, in our FC echo chamber we're oscillating between thrill and euphoria lately. This is driven by bull emotions --> watch your FOMO. I fucked this up in previous cycles by selling BTC to lock in a gain, then buying again when the price doubled, then missing the top (I hodled, but was underwater for 4 years) The antidote to FOMO emotions: *Come up with a plan* What bags have you packed in the last few years? Do you have a target price when you start selling? In tradfi we talk a lot about Dollar Cost Averaging: it's probably MORE important with how you harvest your bags in a blow-off top than how you build your bags in the depths of the bear.
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