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if you’re wondering whether I have high hopes for a ceasefire, the answer is no. russia has violated ceasefires countless times since 2014. and this proposed 30-day ceasefire will probably have one of the same outcomes: 

	1.	russia doesn’t agree to a ceasefire at all. Trump blames Ukraine. 
	2.	russia agrees, uses the pause to regroup, intensifies attacks on Ukrainians in occupied areas, then violates the ceasefire as usual. Trump blames Ukraine. 
	3.	russia agrees, immediately launches a false flag attack to blame Ukraine for the violation, and continues attacks as usual. (Trump blames Ukraine and in this case the U.S. government will help back them with propaganda and lies, just like they do for the state of Israel, claiming that “U.S. intelligence” shows it was Ukraine.)

Anyways, I always hope for good news, but I don’t think we’ll see it anytime soon.

https://kyivindependent.com/neglecting-security-guarantees-trump-fast-tracking-efforts-to-persuade-ukraine-to-ceasefire-with-russia/

I agree with Irina unfortunately. A ceasefire agreement strikes me as unlikely. But now that Ukraine has negotiated deftly with the U.S. if Russia refuses one or tries to sabotage it it will be clear who is to blame for dragging out this terrible war.

Writer, podcaster, and commentator on foreign affairs and politics. Runs /dropglobalnews

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