politics

Democrats and Republicans fully differ on whether Trump’s tariff policies help or harm the economy if implemented like he says

Anyone with good, informed takes on this?

idk does paying more for stuff sound good or bad

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Right I saw this, I’m trying to see if there’s any viewpoints that put up evidence from the other direction that I’m missing

There's essentially no support for the idea that tariffs of the type he's proposing could possibly be good for US consumers. Justin Wolfers has lots of discussion on this, with empirical evidence from other tariffs in the past.

The arithmetic of Trump's tax-for-tariff swap CAN'T WORK.

We currently raise $2.2T from income tax. Imports are around $3T. Before you say a 2.2/3.0 ≈70% tariff would raise the money remember tariffs this high lead imports to fall by about 70%. So you raise 30%×$3T×70% ≈$460b. https://t.co/NWYFpHB2H1

Justin Wolfers

@JustinWolfers 7/ But more importantly, the new Wolfers chart does nothing to substantiate his original effort to link the tariff with the price increase. 

To the extent that a constant tariff affects a consumer price, it should do so as a one-time change in the price level. It does not put… https://t.co/gmxgIPMKGV

Oren, I made you a chart that links the tariff with the price increase. Here, it's simple: Remove the tariff, and the price increase goes away. https://t.co/jvWt92u8bW

There's essentially no support for the idea that tariffs of the type he's proposing could possibly be good for US consumers. Justin Wolfers has lots of discussion on this, with empirical evidence from other tariffs in the past. https://x.com/JustinWolfers/status/1851981851180650537?t=knXvdwgcqOWwvUVeXKEptw&s=19
https://x.com/JustinWolfers/status/1835774878714408987?t=3k7Z-zD7qxJsl8hokVTCDg&s=19