brypto

The majority of people in the world (I’d guess 95%+) are indifferent to or dislike speculation

If you make products that are explicitly around financial speculation, you cede a massive TAM

But it’s unclear how to win real users. So the industry accepts the local maxima — higher floor, lower ceiling

IMO:

1. Global tailwinds are increasing the TAM. The world is becoming more speculatey and will continue in that direction IMO.

2. Speculative users are much higher ARPU so the current TAM tradeoff is fine for businesses

I don’t think the ceiling is lower because of these two reasons

1. Strong agree, we're seeing the "bread and circuses" phase where all forms of speculation are becoming less taboo. Crypto is both a driver of and a beneficiary from this trend

2. This one I think is more complex. Gamblers do spend more, but they also churn out faster because of the zero-sum nature of the game. This is also why we see the casinos rotating. No casino can seem to maintain attention through multiple cycles because its user base churns onto the next one. "Real world" use cases have higher retention even if the ARPU is lower, and that could lead to a greater average / median CLTV in the long run