politics

Can somebody give me the strongest steel man of why the French guy betting 45 mil on Trump is bad? 

What is the worst case theory of this guy doing this, from his motivations to the specific effects it could have?

I was wondering that too, and Timur Kuran had a good steel man on revealed preference, though I tend to believe the scope of the reduction in expected penalties is negligible: https://x.com/timurkuran/status/1848395794178855077

imho, we're not forecasting here, this is gambling. We're not trying to ensure democratic consensus on a betting market. 

Also, believing the signaling provided by prediction markets and polls as being mutually reinforcing one another seems misguided. 

A very small subset of a population is participating in prediction markets; it should not be conflated into being a direct measurement of the public's opinion. 

Trump's rise in prediction markets only lower the expected penalties of being a Trump voter -provided large sets of the population are exposed to said prediction market results. 

The frenchman thinks he can make a bag; no evidence of a strong ulterior motive.