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Content
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Sam
@samhorine
The great in between // how’s everyone doing tonight, anything going on I should know about?
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SRΞΞ 🦉🎩 pfp
SRΞΞ 🦉🎩
@sreeranj
GM Sam ..did u vault degens ?
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Sam
@samhorine
GM - not yet, you?
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SRΞΞ 🦉🎩 pfp
SRΞΞ 🦉🎩
@sreeranj
Yes I did ..came across this today FYI https://warpcast.com/scizors-eth/0x14aec9fc
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Sam pfp
Sam
@samhorine
I put that squarely in the FUD category honestly - when you do the math it’s like 60M $DEGEN that actually get unlocked and with amount that’s going into vault at this rate I don’t see it as being a big disruption even if it’s all dumped at once - but def lots of uncertainty right now and a lot going on behind the scenes that users aren’t privy too. But as far as a massively far reaching plan orchestrated by founder and VCs to dump on users - it just doesn’t track for me currently, could have rugged ages ago for way more
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scizors|theythem|cult leader🎩 pfp
scizors|theythem|cult leader🎩
@scizors.eth
i am unsre on the math, please explain. my intention is not fud but to spread info that is not common knowledge they don't even like to talk about how there are VC backers for this let alone these types of details i locked up 25k tokens and my allowance looks as though it will be only 450 ish per day down from 750 yesterday. currently one needs to lock up more than 500k tokens to get the full 10k allowance and thats $3958 worth of tokens at current value. with the way the rpice has tanked the past three months the math isn't mathig for me with respect, usually when someone has cried FUD in the past they were trying to make others their exit liquidity... screenshots to follow for my sources on this from dune
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Sam
@samhorine
1.25% of 462M = 5,775,000 - that’s like 40k USD worth of $DEGEN at current prices - not saying you’re spreading FUD intentionally but that tweet I’ve seen a few people sharing today certainly is making a big deal about what’s essentially a very small amount of money that won’t affect prices in a meaningful way. Is there more going on behind the scenes that the consumer isn’t aware of? 100% yes And yes of course your allowance is going down as more people stake, that’s how it’s designed as per the description on the DEGEN.tips site, whatever percentage of the pool your stake is equal to is the same percentage of the daily allowance pool up to max limit. https://www.degen.tips/airdrop2/current
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scizors|theythem|cult leader🎩 pfp
scizors|theythem|cult leader🎩
@scizors.eth
I asked Google Gemini Advanced to look over the files form the contract that i pasted into it and try to help me put it into perspective: Let's dive into a detailed analysis of the vesting contract, focusing on the 460 million $DEGEN tokens set to unlock in August and how this could impact the token's price. Deep Dive into the Vesting Schedule Given that 460 million tokens begin vesting in August, we can infer a few things about this specific instance of the OtcVesting contract: Massive VESTING_AMOUNT: The VESTING_AMOUNT in this contract is likely a very large number, possibly even the total supply of $DEGEN tokens. This means a substantial portion of the tokens are subject to this vesting schedule. August as VESTING_CLIFF: August is likely the VESTING_CLIFF date in this contract. This means that until August, none of the 460 million tokens can be claimed.
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scizors|theythem|cult leader🎩 pfp
scizors|theythem|cult leader🎩
@scizors.eth
Linear Unlocking: Based on the claim() function, tokens will likely unlock linearly over time between the VESTING_CLIFF (August) and the VESTING_END. We don't know the exact VESTING_END date, but it's crucial for understanding the full impact. Scenario Analysis: August Onwards Immediate Sell-Off (Worst Case): If the recipient of the 460 million tokens decides to sell immediately upon unlocking, it could create a massive influx of $DEGEN into the market. This could trigger a significant price drop due to increased supply and panicked selling from other holders.
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scizors|theythem|cult leader🎩 pfp
scizors|theythem|cult leader🎩
@scizors.eth
Gradual Selling (Moderate Case): The recipient might choose to sell their tokens gradually to avoid crashing the price. This could still create downward pressure on the price, but the impact would be less severe and spread out over time. Holding or Staking (Best Case): If the recipient believes in the long-term potential of $DEGEN, they might hold onto their tokens or even stake them to earn additional rewards. This could actually have a positive effect on the price by signaling confidence in the project and reducing the circulating supply. The Airdrop's Role The airdrop incentive could play a crucial role in influencing the recipient's behavior. If the airdrop rewards are substantial and tied to holding or staking $DEGEN, it might incentivize the recipient to hold onto their tokens for longer, potentially mitigating the sell-off risk.
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scizors|theythem|cult leader🎩 pfp
scizors|theythem|cult leader🎩
@scizors.eth
Market Response The market's reaction to the August unlocking will be a major factor. If traders anticipate a massive sell-off, they might start selling their holdings beforehand, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. Conversely, positive news or developments in the project could boost confidence and mitigate the negative impact. Additional Considerations Other Vesting Contracts: It's important to remember that there might be other OtcVesting contracts with different recipients and vesting schedules. These could also impact the token's price, especially if multiple large amounts of tokens unlock around the same time. Liquidity: A large sell-off could exacerbate liquidity issues if the market is not deep enough to absorb the sudden influx of tokens.
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scizors|theythem|cult leader🎩 pfp
scizors|theythem|cult leader🎩
@scizors.eth
Key Questions for Further Analysis Who is the Recipient?: Is the recipient a venture capital firm, an early investor, or the project team? Their identity could provide clues about their likely behavior. What is the VESTING_END Date?: The end date will determine how quickly the 460 million tokens could potentially be sold. What is the Airdrop Structure?: How does the airdrop incentivize holding or staking $DEGEN?
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