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On strangled babies 👶 and the #bitcoin supercycle… this is how the current crypto cycle will be different than anything we’ve ever seen before 👇 1. Crypto OGs aren’t your typical hoomans. They believe in (and fight for) tech that attacks the world’s leading power structures (banks, corporations, stock exchanges, VCs, the Fed, 180ish fiat currencies, etc.). 2. For the first 15 years of crypto’s existence, the smart and logical assumption was govts would strangle the little crypto baby 👶 in its crib before it had the strength to walk. 3. That logical assumption (however flawed and blind to crypto’s third- and fourth-order effects) is why many of the world’s keenest minds have looked at crypto and rejected it. 4. Outspoken rejectors include financial juggernauts Warren Buffett and the late Charlie Munger. 5. These are not mid-curve men. Tbh, I revere them like grandfathers. Their words and ideas have echoed in my mind for decades. 6. And yet, we could not agree on crypto. 🧵👇
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7. That’s because for the first 15 years of crypto’s existence, it required the mad and fevered minds of the fringes… those who inhabit not just the world as it is today, but the world as it may be in the future. 8. Before 2024, crypto believers saw the walls around the industry not as the stopping point, but as the marker for how far the current financial system could take humanity. 9. No one else bothered to gaze beyond the wall. And it’s hard to blame them… 10. How could we possibly expect politicians, bankers, fund managers and government employees to see beyond the very structures upon which their livelihoods relied? 11. It’s a ludicrous, unfair request. (sorry, Charlie) (sorry, Warren) 12. And yet, the walls about the centralized garden trembled on January 11, 2024. For that was when the bell was rung. And the first bitcoin ETFs went live.
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13. The door – made of stone – forever closed, suddenly cracked open. 14. Here. There. Everywhere. The world’s keenest financial minds were forced to look at bitcoin with brand new eyes. 15. The crust and mucus flaked away. (And the old man bent over rows of sorghum singing soulfully: “I once was lost, but now am found; Was blind, but now I see.”) 16. A wise woman told me once that Japan is 10 to 20 years behind the US when it comes to social change. It stuck with me because it’s a reminder that cultural transformation is not binary. Instead, it’s chaotic and unevenly distributed. Change works angrily, like oil and water mixing, wending its way through ever-higher pockets and strata of society (or sometimes in the opposite direction). 17. In 2017, we saw a madness, you and I. Crypto onboarded its first truly gargantuan wave of new believers. Few tradfi souls were among them. Instead, this was a madness that infected the smokers… the jokers, the midnight drunken tokers.
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18. Again, the madness came in 2021. This time, a few tradfi elites joined the ranks, but their numbers were small. And their voices were muted by their reputations for depravity. 19. And now… now, how that sweet bell (rung on January 11) resounds. And a similar madness begins to grip the tradfi mind. 20. For the stamp of government approval has been granted. The seal bears the eagle, arrows clutched in talons glinting gold. 21. Under the weight of this great change, I’m not sure we stand on the verge of a “bull market.” But rather, we stand on the verge of a tectonic repricing… a societal awakening, a realization, an acceptance, a hat that must be eaten by the Buffetts, the Dimons, the Blackrockers and all the rest. 22. I thought, once, quite recently indeed, that this cycle could take crypto’s global market cap to $10 trillion. (Currently, we stand at 2.5t). Now, I wonder how cautious that prediction is. Perhaps, it’s only the halfway point… or a quarter of the truth.
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