Polymarket

The most shocking poll I've seen in 16 years of doing this.

The GDP of France just fell by 1.5%. https://t.co/nJ4KtoOAkZ

Domer

sacre bleu 

https://x.com/Domahhhh/status/1852851063449366698

if you don't follow this stuff in detail, Selzer is considered the very best poll in Iowa and maybe in politics. very unexpected signal.

So much for my Saturday night plans. Model update and Model Talk incoming.

It is incredibly gutsy to release this poll. It won't put Harris ahead in our forecast because there was also another Iowa poll out today that was good for Trump. But wouldn't want to play poker against Ann Selzer.

Nate Silver

Seltzer poll: Harris 47, Trump 44 in Iowa https://t.co/ly7ERGpvEB

Final Selzer poll findings (and the actual result)

2022 Senate: R+12 (R+12)
2020 President: R+7 (R+8)
2020 Senate: R+4 (R+7)
2018 Governor: D+2 (R+3)
2016 President: R+7 (R+9)
2014 Senate: R+7 (R+8)
2012 President: D+5 (D+6)

About as good as any pollster gets.

Matthew Klein

I'm eth newbie..just learning
(working on @farcaster)

terminally.online

if you don't follow this stuff in detail, Selzer is considered the very best poll in Iowa and maybe in politics. very unexpected signal.

https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1852850011899322526
https://x.com/MattKleinOnline/status/1852849716788084910

Yeah, she's down to the percentage point good, and Ralston in Nevada put out his editorial today in Nevada and he says Harris wins Nevada by slimmest

guess we'll see how the service sector turns out by wednesday.