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alex
@proxystudio.eth
biggest takeaway for me from GE PM /skininthegame truth machine vs. manipulated pysop recently... people seem to put PM odds in the same category as polling #'s, which ells me the public hasn't really grasped *what* PM odds tell us about a race - this will change with time @nick has a good explainer on the dynamics at play on X, including a link to research on the account who placed the bets in question https://x.com/NTmoney/status/1843691239842922634 I don't think the trump bump is caused by manipulation. Nick says: "transparent global markets at scale are closer to the truth than corporate media narratives controlled by a small group of elites and social media narratives controlled by algorithms." I agree, huge, world-shaping W for smart contracts. Also - those elite who (own) and influence media & tech to shape narratives also use capital to influence political outcomes. It happens openly, and covertly. We shouldn't be paranoid, and we shouldn't be naive
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max ↑🎩
@baseddesigner.eth
makes sense that those media etc. would put more money into polymarket to shift odds towards their candidate vs spending it on making another story etc. but if they keep the money in until the election they risk loosing all those millions lol, but while odds are about the same they aren't risking much
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Roadu 🎩🦊
@roadu
I think currently the prediction markets work best for use as indicators by combining multiple ones (balanced by $) to get the full picture since there the different markets and they have different slants in their user base
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