Polymarket is entering the mainstream.

Farcaster will be next, people haven’t realized how powerful the social legos are:

Frames, Composer Action, Cast Action, Channel, Direct Cast, Smart Wallet.

Once these components mature, small teams can easily build scalable social apps, breaking centralized monopolies and allowing users to own their data and networks.

Polymarket broke out because the regulated version (kalshi) couldn’t meet demand due to regulations. Will Farcaster’s breakout moment be something similar?

https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8780-23

Yeah I agree with that. I’m more thinking that there might be a product that isn’t feasible from a regulatory perspective, which prevents big tech from attacking it. 

Uber, airbnb, and polymarket are all regulatory arbitrages

I don't think Farcaster will breakout because of regulations, since all data is public. Let's see how people build on it. Eventually one product or more trigger the point.

yeh i think they dont overlap too much for now, Kalshi's main segments are SPX/NDX binary options so their main competitors are the big brokers who also offer CME event contracts