Recent electoral swings globally suggest less of a global left or right turn but rather anti-incumbency bias. In the UK Labor was blown out a few years ago only for the Conservatives to be blown out next election. In France the FN is coming to power amid a broader polarization and rejection of centrist parties. I would not be surprised to see trends reverse again in a few years.

The challenge incumbents everywhere are facing is how to generate a convincing narrative of growth and optimism once in power and no one seems to have found the key to this.

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Do you think it’s a reasonable response to actually subpar performance or more a product of failed narrative building?

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Rampant inflation has made life hard for everyday people. Plus, almost half of the population have zero trust in media or public institutions. So, issues with both performance and narrative make it hard for incumbents to retain power. A few years ago I was heartened by swings toward the ‘left’ in many Western nations. Now I realise it’s all destined to be cyclical, unless there is some sort of significant shock to the system.