Why don't people who casually say things like this on the other app realize that prediction markets exist? You can have words backed by genuine risk of meaningful personal consequences there, and it's much more peaceful.

https://x.com/thinkingwest/status/1830617990192124332

Discourse is more constructive than throwing money around, which only the wealthy can afford, or dueling, which only a few are skilled at

Both plutocracy and violence are abhorrent in a modern, civilised society, except wealth often follows from privilege, while dueling is meritocratic

Not to mention, society is not about an egotist fantasy about who is "right" or "wrong" - it's about finding truth before it's too late. There's absolutely zero value to society if a billionaire swept up a prediction market for nuclear apocalypse, there's infinite value for all of us to come together and discuss how we can best prevent that outcome. (Same goes for positive outcomes.)

Betting markets aka prediction markets are useful for what they do - betting. 

(Side-note: "personal consequence" would be partially true if betting markets had "wealth-adjusted risk", e.g. for a billionaire throwing $1M into a bet is nothing; for the average person, $1M is impossible.)

So many people would have happily taken the other side of Balajis million dollar Bitcoin bet a year ago and benefited from it in a wealth adjusted model. For some, a million dollar bet is just good marketing.

Bitcoin Believer, Ethereum Explorer,  NFT collectooor and Digital Marketer. Hosting: /nuconomist

More than that, it could easily be hedged if you had enough backing making it “risk free”. 

Quickly shifts to become a financial game for the wealthy so you can’t even tell who has actual skin in the game.

Quite true, Balaji knew almost no one could afford million dollars on a bet.