politics

One problem—more than half the voters are women. I’d estimate that less than 20% of polymarket users are women. If it’s not accurate, that’s likely the reason. I’d be stunned if this is a landslide for either candidate. It’s likely coming down to one or two states that could go either way. (GA and NC in particular)

Polls — especially phone polls—likely skew older and closer in gender split. Prediction markets skew younger and male, and include a lot of players outside the US. And yes, polls can be manipulated just like markets. My guess is the polls are closer in accuracy and this election is a coin flip atm. 

I do love seeing @polymarket in the national discourse though!

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Couldn’t agree more. But, also, if Americans can’t use Polymarket, surely this data is purely based on outside (non voter) consensus/opinion and not a true prediction of voter sentiment?

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Can’t LEGALLY use it lol — like many crypto things, you can use vpn to access

True but I’d be intrigued to know what percentage of those polymarket predictions are actually U.S. based given the international obsession with the outcome of U.S. elections.