anything that tries to assign to assign probability to outcomes related to human decisions is just telling you what the quality of the information is. when I see prediction markets trending towards 50/50 I just take it to mean the information is getting more garbage.

Design and software at Apple. Also into AI, philosophy of mind, ethics.

the probability is always related to the quality of information?

The only problem is externality pricing.

Building https://negationgame.com

how would you differentiate that from a genuinely close race?

mmm I’m not totally prepared to generalize but with polling/voting stuff I’m pretty confident that betting markets and models going to 50/50 signals deterioration of data of some kind.