Polymarket current sentiment is that this trade war situation will be resolved between March and May. 

I'm not an economist, but I'll explain what I understand about this situation and why this presents an interesting opportunity for market participants who aren't currently 100% overexposed. 🧵

Tariffs undoubtedly send shocks through the markets, and a global trade war would worsen this temporarily. Long enough to force a market sell-off, reverse consumer spending, stagnate (or lower) housing costs, and send rents into freefall. Let the air out of every bubble, and inflation wanes.

Whether this is a move to burn the brush and prevent a bigger fire or start a 100,000 acre one remains to be seen. However, this would also give smart money plenty of opportunity to accumulate over the next 3-6 months. Once this situation is resolved, we send. And that likely happens sooner rather than later.

For now, just survive and try to earn some yield on your stables while you DCA into the blood.

nfa. dyor. opinions are my own.

Stocks and housing have been on an unstoppable, multi-year tear, which is why consumer spending habits have not waned, even in the face of inflation and interest rate hikes. By contrast, Chinese consumers are sitting on record cash because of a multi-year decline in stocks and housing. This is the wealth effect in play.