Nick Tomaino🎩 on Warpcast

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Nick Tomaino🎩 pfp

Nick Tomaino🎩

Polymarket now goes viral outside of crypto regularly, Trump’s been posting his Polymarkets weekly, but crypto people haven’t embraced PMs yet. Why not? Imo it’s not degen enough. They’d rather go for 100x on a memecoin than 2x on politics Making markets more degen via either leverage or tokens is big opp

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jacob pfp

the fact that it is on polygon and not an ETH L2 is a large factor. I could imagine it on Arbitrum or Optimism seeing substantially more activity. Maybe it could be priced in ETH too, but I have less conviction in that. Also little details like "Connect" instead of "Login" allude to a trad experience. cc @shayne

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Doli 🎩 pfp

@deadserious.eth

Reasons imo: - usually too long to reach an outcome (vs quick shitcoin trading dopamine) - final outcome once it's resolved (cannot play it again, resulting in alpha decay) - does not match with 10000x expectations fed by CT influenzas - IRL bet topic = crypto people have less alpha vs normies (crypto PvE > PMs)

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Kaloh pfp

I was searching for a polymarket channel and found this cast. Good explanation

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Eddie Wharton pfp

Agree not degen enough for crypto natives Farming for tokens could seriously distort market accuracy / calibration Leverage is better imo and it could appeal to larger capital pools

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@montagnard.eth

Where did Trump post about his Polymarket ?

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fommes🎩 🐲 👁️🚪 pfp

fommes🎩 🐲 👁️🚪

Wait… for real? imo most bettooors are def crypto natives, no way a normie would being able to use PM. tbf onboarding wasn’t that straightforward even for degens like myself

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Zach Segal pfp

Great comments so far. To summarize: (1) Country blockers (eg US) (2) Markets resolve slowly (eg presidency) (3) Risk/reward not great for degens (4) Onboarding/ease of use behind traditional PMs That said, I love Polymarket & think interative new experiments via Frames could help unlock a killer new format

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Brian Flynn pfp

Crypto Twitter either wants status or money. I think there's an opportunity to build prediction markets built for status so you can start to build an expert network that knows what will happen next and has a track record to prove it. Perps/memecoins will always be more degen than PMs

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six pfp

Think the US regulation also a big part

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Dan pfp

Also needs a faster feedback loop. Markets that resolve in minutes or hours instead of weeks or months.

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Thomas Mattimore pfp

Thomas Mattimore

been seeing it outside Trump too. Lots of none crypto people on twitter posting about these betting markets for all kinds of things

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Jaimin pfp

I love polymarket and am excited for prediction markets but you’re spot on, it’s a different target market It’s a similar reason why on-chain casinos haven’t found PMF... Why play lower sum blackjack table with a couple X upside when the slot machines around you occasionally give you a 1000x

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Peter Vecchiarelli

@petevecchiarelli

I wonder if the probabilities were expressed as betting odds (e.g. +150) by default more people would be able to intuit payouts/upside more easily

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cody pfp

I was thinking about this today but hit a wall. how would you structure a memecoin as a prediction? would you just do a bonding curve? we saw a version of this with yoyo but it didn't seem to catch on. https://www.yoyo.meme/?tokenA=0x6aaeDc96363337695ECDC92e4F7a06c9850A88f5

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𒂠_𒍣𒅀_𒊑 pfp

𒂠_𒍣𒅀_𒊑

sure, any prediction market that's not geoblocked + handles staking & slashing of an emitted token (especially by betting on bundles of bets) could be extremely popular.

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fommes🎩 🐲 👁️🚪 pfp

fommes🎩 🐲 👁️🚪

Another issue that comes to mind is illiquid markets (most are in fact). I tried LPing but losses are too heavy. Unified liquidity pool for all markets with LM could be a potential solution?!

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amtwo 🎩 pfp

Agreed, I would also say attention spans are fickle for Crypto degens. Thus, waiting a few weeks to a few months for a bet to play out is uncharacteristic for those chasing 100x gains

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Rumblestiltskin

@rumblestiltskin.eth

Is there an IPFS web page to use Polymarket? The website geoblocks me from using it.

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