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Michael Silberling
@msilb7
Blob math (pt 2): What happens when we hit congestion, when will that be? Blobgas is priced like Eth L1. There's a target per block. Above target, price goes up. Below, goes down. Today, rollups use ~22% of the target (T28D); so we're ~4x growth away from blobgas price > 1 wei
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Michael Silberling
@msilb7
MAJOR ASSUMPTIONS: 1) All Rollup Calldata Usage on L1 immediately migrates to Blobs and stays in the same exact structure. 2) Blobs are purchased 100% efficiently (all calldata fits in to full blobs).
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Michael Silberling
@msilb7
But, this should give ~some base to start building some cost projection models from: - What % of data will actually migrate to 4844? - How much other data will use blobs? - How fast will blob usage grow? - Once we hit congestion, how will demand x gas price market behave?
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Michael Silberling
@msilb7
See the (v WIP) Dashboard: https://dune.com/oplabspbc/l1-da-usage-by-rollups-eip4844 Based on the /dune Rollup Economics data model (spell), led by @0xkofi Let me know if this is chaotically dumb, or have any feedback/suggested modifications (Part 3 WIP)
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