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Blob math: everything is free until you hit congestion

Blob math (pt 2): What happens when we hit congestion, when will that be?

Blobgas is priced like Eth L1. There's a target per block. Above target, price goes up. Below, goes down.

Today, rollups use ~22% of the target (T28D); so we're ~4x growth away from blobgas price > 1 wei

data @ op labs, building @optimism 🔴✨ | go /gators 🐊  | casts are my own things | msilb7.com

But, this should give ~some base to start building some cost projection models from:

- What % of data will actually migrate to 4844?
- How much other data will use blobs?
- How fast will blob usage grow?
- Once we hit congestion, how will demand x gas price market behave?

dune

See the (v WIP) Dashboard: https://dune.com/oplabspbc/l1-da-usage-by-rollups-eip4844

Based on the /dune Rollup Economics data model (spell), led by @0xkofi 

Let me know if this is chaotically dumb, or have any feedback/suggested modifications (Part 3 WIP)

See eip4844.com for way more detailed info on the upgrade, and why I keep saying blobs (it took me a while too).

END OF THREAD NERDS

MAJOR ASSUMPTIONS:

1) All Rollup Calldata Usage on L1 immediately migrates to Blobs and stays in the same exact structure.

2) Blobs are purchased 100% efficiently (all calldata fits in to full blobs).