politics

One problem—more than half the voters are women. I’d estimate that less than 20% of polymarket users are women. If it’s not accurate, that’s likely the reason. I’d be stunned if this is a landslide for either candidate. It’s likely coming down to one or two states that could go either way. (GA and NC in particular)

Polls — especially phone polls—likely skew older and closer in gender split. Prediction markets skew younger and male, and include a lot of players outside the US. And yes, polls can be manipulated just like markets. My guess is the polls are closer in accuracy and this election is a coin flip atm. 

I do love seeing @polymarket in the national discourse though!

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I’ve been pretty skeptical of these numbers for similar reasons. The probability can be screwed by placing a higher bet. It’s like an alternative reality where you can shape probability with cash.

human, coder, artist. by day @agora, by night @botfrens and @basedbits. running, reading, coding

more like the polls can all be totally moved 20% either direction by how they do them.  When they do them.  Where they do them.