GIGAMΞSH
@gigamesh
From what I can tell, the best all-time ROI on Polymarket is only about 17%*. If smart money can get rich in prediction markets, why aren't they? *leaderboard ranks by total profit rather than % so its possible non-whales have higher ROI https://polymarket.com/leaderboard
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Monteluna
@monteluna
Maybe I'm a stats guy, but I feel like "prediction market" will go down as yet another crypto misnomer. In a frequentist point of view, the probability surfaced by polymarket is just an average of possible experiment samples that we can never take. Bayesian? Its the global prior that updates on each trade. I take a market view (not stats). The price is just the last marginal clearing price that two people agreed on. Much ado about nothing and it has no real information on the event.
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Monteluna
@monteluna
Basically, there's no such thing as true "smart money", because prediction markets aren't generally predictive. Even in betting there's this idea of sharps but they usually aren't people who have better information, they were just arbitrageurs who scalped between markets. No one's actually that smart.
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