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Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
Early voting totals, polls and markets seem to indicate either GOP landslide—or an Election Day collapse (because so many voted early, some GOP voters stay home because of perceived lead, strong turn out from Dems, indpts and dual hate break for Harris). Kalshi at $100M in volume negating “Americans can’t bet” argument. Robinhood launching trading will also add liquidity. Maybe some big trader will take EV+ Kamala 3x bet in size over the weekend.
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Midnight Marauder Ⓜ️
@midnightmarauder.eth
Not sure what polls you are looking at, still all within the margin of error. The betting markets are noise, not something I would take seriously about the sentiment of the American voter.
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Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
1. Nate Silver, Nate Cohn and RCP all show major change + for GOP 2. If the sentiment argument is true, then my last point about a large EV+ bet for Kamala this week will likely happen. Too much money to be made for an unemotional savvy trader (if she's underpriced). Kalshi and Robinhood trading is exclusively for Americans.
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Midnight Marauder Ⓜ️
@midnightmarauder.eth
I’ll take Nate Silver more seriously than RCP their site is clearly heavily slanted right wing. The last reading of Nate’s came with some serious caveats if I remember correctly. Ofc the only real poll is the election. Nothing there is saying landslide fwiw
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Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
1. RCP has the same polls Nate uses, lol. It's just raw data. 2. Nate Silver has landslide as the most likely 2 individual outcomes and 35% chance overall. I find it amusing people try to fact check me when I'm the one citing the latest data. :)
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Midnight Marauder Ⓜ️
@midnightmarauder.eth
Also it may be the same set of polls but there are different methodology’s used to come out with the end prediction. Not just raw data
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