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Murtaza Hussain
@mazmhussain
JD Vance is a Ukraine-skeptic in the sense of opposing the prosecution of the war as presently conducted and with current goals; but he has also said recently that it would be against America’s interest if Russia were to march on Kyiv or a similarly extreme outcome. So in a different framing one can say that he actually has a moderate position on the subject. He would likely lean on Ukraine to accept a loss of territory in exchange for a ceasefire but he would not facilitate an outright defeat that resulted in the dissolution of the country.
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Vitalik Buterin
@vitalik.eth
To me the big question is sustainable peace vs three-year interlude before round 2 (really, round 3). The "peace" proposed in Apr 2022 would have Ukraine's own army reduced to a tiny size, *and* banned security agreements with other countries, which was clearly totally unreasonable. Ukraine needs conditions where they have a reliable guarantee of Russia not attacking again, and people can confidently invest in the country (both funds investing their money, and citizens investing their time by returning/staying) without fear it will all be erased - or else it has no way to get economic growth. Political incentives always lean toward the photogenic short term handshake and narrativizing away medium term issues as "not our problem now".
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Murtaza Hussain
@mazmhussain
This is the problem; if the peace is simply an interlude to a new war after Russia rearmed and regrouped that would obviously be worse than attempting to press to victory today. Evaluating such a proposal it would need strong safeguards including likely inclusion of Ukraine in NATO and other steps to maximally ramp up its deterrent capacity such that the country would be secure in the manner you have described. The photogenic quasi-peace agreements you are referring to are truly a scourge oftentimes they simply lay the groundwork an unacceptable situation which degenerates back into war soon enough. See Oslo agreement in Israel-Palestine or even Dayton in Bosnia.
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TS
@tsuipen
Maybe this war will come to some sort of negotiated end but the larger conflict will endure for a long time. I see some similarity between this and India/Pakistan. Deep historical ties turned to hatred. Territorial dispute over an area that plays a crucial role in nationalist narratives of both countries.
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