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Bashar Assad reportedly fled Syria upon the collapse of the Syrian government. Some reports indicate his plane may have crashed; otherwise the transponders were turned off to mask his destination. I would bet Moscow if he is alive.

Writer, podcaster, and commentator on foreign affairs and politics. Runs /dropglobalnews

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Moscow for sure. Probably made a deal with Kremlin: we can no longer support your regime in Syria, but we are happy to give you and your family refuge.

The weird thing isn’t so much that the transponder stopped transmitting (as you pointed out, it could have just been turned off), but rather that it reported a steep descent to virtually ground level (or very near) *until* it stopped transmitting, and that was in the middle of nowhere near Homs, which is consistent with an uncontrolled flight into terrain.

On the other hand, if the aircraft had truly crashed and Assad was truly on board (another unknown), I’d expect solid intel and footage by now — given that this happened nearly 24 hours ago already.

So my guess is also that he’s safe and sound in Abu Dhabi, Moscow, or Tehran