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Michael Cameron
@iserlone
Skepticism of an Eth ETF is the only view that accounts for GG & Warren. GG repeatedly testified that BTC was a commodity. Even then, lawsuits had to force the issue. GG famously refused to say what Eth is. POS makes Eth different than BTC. Argument used against Solana in SEC v. Coinbase will easily stop an Eth ETF.
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Matt Walsh
@mattwalshinbos
I agree that the SEC will not approve it. Will take a lawsuit. The only question is who will be the one to sue the SEC?
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Michael Cameron
@iserlone
Agreed, but even then, how many months or years will the lawsuit take?
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Matt Walsh
@mattwalshinbos
Not clear to me how fast it could move. Best guess is that it would move at around the same pace as the Grayscale BTC case.
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Michael Cameron
@iserlone
Agreed it will be something like this. Grayscale filed for approval Oct 2021, was rejected by and sued the SEC in June 2022, won the case August 2023, and ETF was approved January 2024. Following that timeline it would be 1-1.5 years from the rejection of an Eth ETF, firmly in 2025 territory.
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A2
@peela
The issue that you all don't address is that there is a precedent in the grayscale case. A judge will just look at that and say how are futures and spot not the same and a case can move fairly quick. GG will need some novel theory to disallow it without saying etf is a security. Why will bitwise not sue?
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